miércoles, 23 de octubre de 2019

Qué podemos decir sobre la crisis chilena?

Los economistas somos acusados por la gran mayoría de los no economistas de creernos que estudiamos una ciencia exacta cuando en realidad es una ciencia social.
Más allá de esa chicana los economistas sabemos que la economía está gobernada por algunas leyes que se verifican siempre. Que entendemos por leyes? Algunas poquísimas relaciones causa efecto.
1-Si devalúas, vas a tener más inflación
2-Si tenés deficit fiscal permanentemente vas a tener más inflación
3-Si subís las tarifas vas a tener más inflación
4-Si hacés un ajuste fiscal por la vía de reducir el gasto público en términos reales, vas a tener recesión.

Podríamos seguir así hasta el infinito.

Pero ninguna de estas ideas nos sirve para entender que pasa en Chile. Para ello, tenemos que recurrir a otra idea que aún no tiene carácter de ley económica a pesar de que lo merece.

Alguna vez escribimos esto, traduciendo al Maestro

"Una visión de las finanzas públicas, que sostiene que todo está bien si sólo prevalece la optimalidad paretiana, deja de lado estos componentes esenciales de la coexistencia social y falla tanto en términos normativos como positivos. Sin permitir un sentido de justicia social la buena sociedad no puede ser definida y sin ella una sociedad democrática no puede funcionar" 



La clave de la idea es que una sociedad requiere que se garantice un nivel mínimo de justicia social para que una sociedad democrática pueda funcionar, y tiene como objetivo justificar la intervención del Estado con políticas fiscales redistributivas

Los economistas tenemos varias herramientas que nos permiten medir el impacto redistributivo de la política fiscal, la más popular y simple de entender es comparar el Gini antes de la política fiscal con el Gini después de la política fiscal.

El Gini antes de la política fiscal es el Gini que todos conocemos como la básica medida de distribución del ingreso.

El Gini después de la política fiscal surge de estimar el impacto sobre cada decil de ingreso de la política fiscal. Como toma estimación es una herramienta que está sujeta mucho debate sobretodo por los supuestos de incidencia tributaria (quien paga realmente cada impuesto) que sustentan las estimaciones.

En este gráfico podemos ver el impacto de la política fiscal para Chile y algunos países seleccionados de la OECD. Los datos los pueden encontrar acá



Chile es el país con la política fiscal menos redistributiva de la muestra. Elegí no incluir en la muestra a los países escandinavos ni a Francia porque son conocidos ejemplos de países con políticas redistributivas.

Los anuncios de  ayer de  Piñera de una nueva agenda social son una clara muestra de una decisión política de tener una politica fiscal más redistributiva




En 2018 Chile tuvo un deficit fiscal de apenas 1.7% del PBI. Según algunas estimaciones el costo fiscal de los anuncios de Piñera sería de u$s 1.200 millones, 0.4% del PBI.
El gasto público chileno en 2018 fue de 25.36% del PBI,
Todo parece indicar que las medidas anunciadas no tendrán un efecto redistributivo significativo, ojalá que aún así, Chile logre recuperar la paz social

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